AMD expects to book about $17 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2026, plus or minus 3%. Intel’s own forecast for the same quarter is $15 billion to $16 billion, so AMD’s guidance sits above the top of Intel’s range. Tom’s Hardware reports that, if AMD hits its number, it would be the first time in the company’s history that it outsells Intel in a quarter.
One correction to the shorthand going around: this is a quarterly forecast, not a full-year result, and as of 5 November 2026 it hasn’t happened yet. Intel still reported the bigger Q3. The reason AMD can overtake it is almost entirely servers, which makes this a story about data centre silicon with a side effect for anyone shopping for a PC.
What AMD announced
AMD published its third-quarter 2026 results on 3 November 2026. Revenue was a record $13.4 billion, up 45% on the year, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 56% and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.09. The company said revenue exceeded the top of its own guidance.
The 8-K filing puts the Q4 outlook at about $17 billion, which at the midpoint is roughly 66% up on a year earlier and 27% up on Q3. Non-GAAP gross margin is guided to about 55%.
The Data Center segment did the work. It brought in a record $8.5 billion, up 97%, on demand for EPYC server processors and the launch of the Instinct MI450 Series GPUs. For Q4, Tom’s Hardware calculates from AMD’s guidance that Data Center climbs to roughly $12.8 billion, driven by the ramp of Instinct MI455X accelerators and Helios systems.
AMD and Intel side by side
Intel reported on 29 October 2026, in its Q3 earnings release: revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21%, and a Q4 forecast of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion. Its CFO called the data centre growth the company’s strongest in 15 years. The market read the Q4 guidance as soft, and HotHardware notes it hit Intel’s share price.
| Metric (as of 5 Nov 2026) | AMD | Intel |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 revenue ($B) | 13.4 | 16.5 |
| Q3 growth year on year (%) | 45 | 21 |
| Q3 data centre revenue ($B) | 8.5 | 7.3 |
| Q3 data centre growth (%) | 97 | 78 |
| Q3 client segment change (%) | +7 | -5 |
| Q3 non-GAAP gross margin (%) | 56 | 44.1 |
| Q4 2026 revenue guidance ($B) | about 17 (±3%) | 15 to 16 |
| Q4 non-GAAP gross margin guidance (%) | about 55 | 38 |
| Q4 client outlook, sequential | Client and Gaming down more than 20% | Client group down more than 20% |
Sources for the table: AMD’s and Intel’s earnings releases, Intel’s 10-Q for the client change, HotHardware for Intel’s $7.3 billion data centre figure, and Intel’s call summary for the margin guidance. AMD’s 56% is a non-GAAP figure, and so is Intel’s 44.1%.
Our calculation: at the midpoints, $17.0 billion for AMD minus $15.5 billion for Intel is a $1.5 billion gap, or about 9.7% of Intel’s midpoint.
Source: AMD and Intel earnings releases (3 and 29 October/November 2026); Q4 values are company guidance, not results
The chart shows the flip: Intel’s actual Q3 of $16.5 billion against AMD’s $13.4 billion, then the Q4 midpoints of $15.5 billion and $17 billion. Intel’s number falls by about a billion while AMD’s jumps by $3.6 billion.
Where the growth comes from
AMD’s Data Center business was already about two-thirds of total revenue in Q3. Embedded added $1.1 billion, up 29%, on aerospace, automotive and industrial demand. Client revenue was $2.9 billion, up 7%, led by Ryzen mobile processors.
Source: AMD Q3 2026 earnings release, 3 November 2026
The weak spot is gaming. Revenue there fell 40% to $773 million, which AMD blames on lower semi-custom and graphics sales. The headline numbers for the combined Client and Gaming segment were $3.7 billion, down 8%.
The server story has been building for a while. Techzine cites AMD at 33.2% of x86 server processor shipments in the first quarter of 2026 and 46.2% of x86 server revenue.
Why Intel’s number is lower
Intel isn’t shrinking in servers. Its 10-Q shows data centre and AI revenue up 78% in Q3, helped by a richer product mix and some demand-based price increases. The company expects strong data centre demand to continue in Q4.
The drag has two sources. Intel’s earnings call highlights describe an incident at its Fab 28 plant in Israel that cuts about $300 million from Q4 revenue and 200 basis points from gross margin, with a similar revenue hit likely in Q1. Intel also cites a client inventory correction, and says industry-wide shortages of substrates and memory limited its Q3 sales.
That leaves Intel’s Q4 gross margin guidance at 38%, against 44.1% in Q3. AMD’s mix, by contrast, pulls its margin guidance only from 56% to about 55%.
The PC and gaming side
Neither company is guiding the consumer business up. AMD projects Client and Gaming to contract by more than 20% sequentially in Q4, and Tom’s Hardware attributes that to higher memory prices weakening PC demand. Intel’s client group is guided down by the same margin.
Intel’s warning is more explicit: it expects the PC slowdown to continue at least through the first half of next year, according to HotHardware.
So the crossover happens because servers are surging while PC chips are in a dip for both companies. A buyer picking between a Ryzen and a Core laptop isn’t looking at a market where either vendor is racing to cut prices.
Price and availability
There’s nothing to buy here, so there’s no price. The figure to watch is AMD’s Q4 revenue, which will only be known when the company reports the quarter.
AMD gave a range as well: plus or minus 3% around $17 billion. Even the bottom of that band is above the top of Intel’s range, a point HotHardware makes.
Who should care
Anyone planning a server refresh or following EPYC against Xeon will find the segment growth rates the most useful part of the table. AMD’s data centre revenue is up 97% and Intel’s is up 78%.
PC builders and laptop shoppers should read the client lines. Both companies guide that business down by more than 20% from Q3 to Q4, and the stated reasons are memory prices, inventory correction and supply limits. Radeon buyers get one more data point: AMD’s gaming revenue is 40% below a year ago.
Also this week
Windows 11 gets tuned for 8GB machines
Microsoft says Windows 11 is up to 20% more responsive on 8GB PCs and multitasking is up to 40% faster, but TechSpot points out these are best-case lab figures. The update needs Windows 11 26H2 build 26300.9818 or later, and Tom’s Hardware links the push to the component shortage forcing makers to trim specs. Windows Central has rounded up laptops from $599 (as of 5 November 2026) that benefit.
Discord drops Electron for Rust
Discord’s CTO has confirmed the desktop client is being rebuilt in Rust, with the GPUI framework drawing the interface, according to Windows Latest. An early Windows 11 build shown by the company used 290.2MB of RAM, while the current app can reach 4GB, a level Discord has acknowledged. It’s an early screenshot of a single build, so treat the number as a promise rather than a benchmark.
What this means for you
If you need a laptop or desktop and the spec is right, don’t hold out for a spring price cut on the strength of this news. Both Intel and AMD are guiding client sales down by more than 20% sequentially, and Intel expects the slowdown to last into the first half of 2027. Buy when the configuration fits your budget, and pay for the RAM you will need rather than the RAM you hope to get by with.
If you own an 8GB Windows 11 machine, install the latest update (26H2 build 26300.9818 or later), and keep Edge, Microsoft 365 and Teams current, as Microsoft advises. If you’re buying new and can stretch to 16GB, do it, since Microsoft itself says 16GB and 32GB machines still perform better.
For anything stock-related or server-related, treat $17 billion as guidance. Check AMD’s actual Q4 revenue against Intel’s when both report, because the $1.5 billion midpoint gap is small enough that a Fab 28 recovery or an Instinct delay could shift the order.
Sources
- AMD Newsroom: AMD Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- SEC: AMD Form 8-K, Q3 2026 results and outlook
- SEC: Intel Reports Third-Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- SEC: Intel Form 10-Q, Q3 2026
- Tom’s Hardware: AMD expects to outsell Intel in Q4 for the first time in history
- HotHardware: AMD on pace to top Intel in revenue for first time after crushing Q3
- TechPowerUp: AMD Reports Record $13.4B Third Quarter 2026 Revenue
- Investing.com: AMD Q3 2026 slides, data center surges 97%
- Techzine Global: AMD close to a historic first, more chip revenue than Intel
- Yahoo Finance: Intel Q3 2026 earnings call highlights
- TechSpot: Windows 11 is now 20% more responsive and 40% faster at multitasking on 8GB PCs
- Tom’s Hardware: Windows 11 8GB RAM configurations get a performance boost
- Windows Central: Microsoft quietly made Windows 11 run better on 8GB PCs
- Windows Latest: Discord is killing its Electron app that can eat 4GB of RAM on Windows 11
Header image: illustration, AI-generated.